Leading experts have warned that at least one new animal disease like bovine TB could hit the farming community in the next decade.
They predicted the arrival of a vector-borne disease – where the infection is carried from animal to animal by a third party, such as insects or, in the case of TB, badgers.
Dr Anthony Wilson, head of mathematical biology of VBD at the Pirbright Institute, and Richard Kock, professor of wildlife health and emerging diseases at the Royal Veterinary College, issued the stark warning to expect a new disease, such as bluetongue or the Schmallenberg virus, to strike sooner rather than later. The National Farmers Union in the South West has advised a policy of "vigilance and surveillance" to keep out new and existing infections.
It said the key was to remain "prepared" for the worst but without becoming "paranoid".
Dr Wilson said: "We do have processes to reduce the risks and blanket bans [on imports] can work in some cases.
"But we can't really stop these things spreading because some insects will be blown over the Channel by the wind."
Professor Kock said rising temperatures, increased air transportation and more tourists and visitors could lead to the UK being exposed to the risk of more VBDs. Increasing industrialisation of livestock will also increase susceptibilities, he added, because natural immunity will not develop easily, increasing the risk of "sporadic but large-scale outbreaks when biosecurity breaks down".
The Schmallenberg virus is linked to miscarriages and stillbirths in sheep, cattle and goats.
It was detected in the UK this year and, like Bluetongue, which was first detected here five years ago, the disease is transmitted by midges.
Ian Johnson, NFU South West regional spokesman, said avian flu, foot and mouth and Bluetongue were all "regular visitors" and agreed "we are certainly at risk".
"We live in a small world in terms of trading and one that is changing in terms of climate," he said.
"The key is vigilance and surveillance – then modelling as to how and where any disease might spread.
"We have got to know where diseases are, what signs to look for and practise good biosecurity."
The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) said it had "robust procedures in place to spot and track any emerging disease threats".
A Defra spokesman added: "We have an international network of disease-monitoring to keep us fully aware of the spread of any diseases abroad, and we carry out constant research to investigate all new and emerging threats."
